My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago White Sox ML +270, 12.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML +110, 10%
- Kansas City Royals ML -115, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.46% | 0.1631 | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.20% | 0.0301 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Minnesota Twins | 42.66% | -0.0401 | +125 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 49.66% | -0.0068 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44.93% | 0.0784 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.07% | 0.0372 | -175 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 65.03% | 0.0470 | -165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 45.31% | 0.6763 | +270 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 57.01% | 0.1973 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | 51.26% | -0.0209 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 65.19% | 0.2191 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* | Colorado Rockies | 35.07% | -0.0355 | +175 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.54% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.20% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 57.34% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Houston Astros | 50.34% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.07% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.07% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians* | Cleveland Guardians | 65.03% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.69% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 57.01% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | New York Mets | 51.26% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 65.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners* | Seattle Mariners | 64.93% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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