My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +160, 15%
- Cleveland Guardians ML -130, 7.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +170, 15%
- Chicago White Sox ML +305, 10%
- Chicago Cubs ML -135, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 59.37% | 0.5437 | +160 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.96% | 0.0651 | +105 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 48.30% | -0.0340 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.94% | 0.0963 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.52% | -0.0297 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.95% | 0.5917 | +170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 42.46% | 0.7196 | +305 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 44.26% | -0.0042 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 68.43% | 0.1907 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Minnesota Twins | 38.01% | 0.0263 | +170 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 54.20% | 0.0839 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.68% | 0.0963 | +140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Colorado Rockies | 32.77% | 0.1961 | +265 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.97% | 0.0705 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 46.17% | 0.0158 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winer | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 59.37% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.96% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 51.70% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 61.94% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.48% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.95% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.54% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 54.74% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 68.43% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.99% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 54.20% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.32% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.23% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.97% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Houston Astros | 53.83% |
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