My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cleveland Guardians ML +135, 10%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 7.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +185, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +205, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML +170, 22.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.25% | -0.0041 | -115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.27% | 0.2752 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.24% | 0.2311 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 47.46% | 0.3525 | +185 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 45.63% | 0.3917 | +205 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 48.37% | 0.1125 | +130 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 65.17% | 0.7596 | +170 |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.14% | 0.1246 | -115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.14% | -0.0291 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 67.14% | 0.0474 | -180 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41.89% | 0.0263 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Colorado Rockies | 31.52% | 0.1346 | +260 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.69% | 0.0065 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.35% | 0.2977 | +180 |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.34% | 0.0761 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.25% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.27% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.76% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.37% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.63% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 65.17% |
| New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.14% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.14% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels | Kansas City Royals | 67.14% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.11% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 68.48% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.69% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.65% |
| Houston Astros vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.34% |
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