My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 7.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +230, 7.5%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +160, 12.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML -105, 15%
- Boston Red Sox ML -135, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.70% | -0.0332 | -115 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.67% | 0.1808 | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 41.92% | 0.3832 | +230 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.51% | 0.0172 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.43% | 0.1300 | -115 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 58.07% | -0.0070 | -140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.19% | 0.3830 | +160 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | St. Louis Cardinals | 49.31% | 0.0849 | +120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Miami Marlins | 49.20% | 0.0332 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 66.10% | 0.2890 | -105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Francisco Giants | 38.33% | 0.1117 | +190 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.27% | -0.0052 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 59.87% | 0.0118 | -145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | 68.34% | 0.1890 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.70% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.67% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.08% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.51% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 60.43% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 58.07% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.69% |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.80% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 66.10% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.67% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.73% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 59.87% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | 68.34% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
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