My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Miami Marlins ML +130, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +170, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +145, 7.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Atlanta Braves | 48.95% | 0.0036 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | Washington Nationals | 31.72% | 0.0309 | +225 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 51.27% | -0.0412 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates* | Athletics | 59.04% | 0.0805 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.98% | -0.0487 | -120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Miami Marlins | 52.72% | 0.2125 | +130 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 45.01% | 0.2153 | +170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 55.75% | 0.0649 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.09% | -0.0466 | -150 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.92% | 0.2475 | +145 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.14% | -0.0290 | -150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.38% | 0.0160 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.63% | 0.0964 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 74.25% | 0.0395 | -250 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.05% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 50.00% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 68.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 51.27% |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates* | Athletics | 59.04% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.98% |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Miami Marlins | 52.72% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 54.99% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 55.75% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.00% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.09% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.92% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.14% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Angels | 51.62% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.63% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 74.25% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
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