My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 15%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +120, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +150, 7.5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 10%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -120, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 55.43% | -0.0356 | -135 |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.54% | -0.0156 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.12% | -0.0079 | -125 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 64.64% | 0.2928 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets* | Washington Nationals | 38.76% | 0.0852 | +180 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.83% | 0.2062 | +120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 44.43% | -0.0226 | +120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.2500 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 68.10% | 0.0692 | -175 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies: | Los Angeles Angels | 59.41% | 0.0338 | -135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 54.53% | 0.0415 | -110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 61.44% | 0.1736 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.19% | 0.0438 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 63.31% | 0.1586 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.84% | 0.0040 | +150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 55.43% |
| Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates* | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.54% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.12% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 64.64% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Mets* | New York Mets | 61.24% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.83% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City Royals | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.57% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 68.10% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies: | Los Angeles Angels | 59.41% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 54.53% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 61.44% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 52.19% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 63.31% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.84% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
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