Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Cleveland Guardians ML +165, 7.5%
• San Diego Padres ML +120, 20%
• Athletics ML +135, 5%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +165, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians	47.05%	0.2469	+165
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	San Diego Padres	67.69%	0.4892	+120
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays	53.78%	-0.0319	-125
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	Athletics	50.66%	0.1905	+135
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	58.40%	0.0686	-120
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	42.14%	0.0325	+145
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds*	Chicago Cubs	44.69%	-0.0391	+115
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	38.47%	0.0194	+165
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	Los Angeles Angels	45.41%	0.2032	+165
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	62.06%	0.0054	-160

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	52.95%
San Diego Padres vs New York Mets	San Diego Padres	67.69%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays	Toronto Blue Jays	53.78%
Athletics vs Boston Red Sox	Athletics	50.66%
Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals	Seattle Mariners	58.40%
Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies	Miami Marlins	57.86%
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cincinnati Reds	55.31%
New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles	New York Yankees	61.53%
Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	54.59%
San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	62.06%

*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams