My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML +135, 22.5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +115, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.52% | 0.3084 | +140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 55.99% | 0.0247 | -120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 49.25% | 0.0096 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.38% | 0.0769 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 68.92% | 0.6197 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.00% | 0.2421 | +130 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.20% | 0.0380 | -200 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.31% | 0.1247 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.75% | -0.0115 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 50.75% | -0.0306 | -110 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 63.02% | -0.0295 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 42.13% | 0.1585 | +175 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 58.92% | 0.0252 | -135 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 65.61% | 0.0432 | -170 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.00% | 0.0520 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 55.99% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 50.75% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.38% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 68.92% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.00% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.20% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.31% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.75% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 50.75% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 63.02% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.87% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 58.92% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 65.61% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.00% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment