My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10%
- Boston Red Sox ML -170, 10%
- Houston Astros ML +110, 12.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +130, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Washington Nationals | 45.79% | 0.0074 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% | 0.2493 | +130 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% | 0.0241 | -130 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% | N/A | N/A |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% | 0.1280 | -170 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% | 0.0232 | -110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 44.48% | -0.0437 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 48.01% | -0.0398 | +100 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% | 0.0582 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 30.74% | 0.0144 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% | -0.0476 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% | 0.2676 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% | 0.1500 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% | 0.0862 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 49.49% | -0.0102 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 54.21% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 55.52% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 51.99% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.26% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 50.00% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.51% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
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