My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML +140, 12.5%
- Houston Astros ML -135, 7.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -140, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% | 0.2134 | +105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% | 0.3776 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% | 0.0604 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 46.04% | 0.0130 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 40.91% | 0.1045 | +170 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% | 0.0426 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% | 0.1254 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% | 0.2217 | -140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% | 0.0424 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 53.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 59.09% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% |
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