Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 7.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML +140, 20%
• Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105, 15%
• Athletics ML -110, 10%
• Colorado Rockies ML +275, 5%
• Boston Red Sox ML -160, 10%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.84%	0.1429	-110
Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies	Kansas City Royals	65.10%	0.5625	+140
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	Houston Astros	64.88%	0.0965	-145
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	Baltimore Orioles	42.61%	0.0652	+150
Texas Rangers vs New York Mets	Texas Rangers	46.51%	0.0930	+135
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	57.54%	0.3809	+140
Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins*	Detroit Tigers	63.55%	0.0740	-145
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins	Arizona Diamondbacks	65.07%	0.3340	+105
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	St. Louis Cardinals	43.41%	0.0852	+150
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs	Tampa Bay Rays	41.50%	-0.0246	+135
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	Athletics	62.41%	0.1920	-110
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers	61.51%	0.0519	-140
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	Colorado Rockies	36.14%	0.3553	+275
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	Los Angeles Angels	36.63%	0.0624	+190
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.32%	0.1230	-160

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.84%
Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies	Kansas City Royals	65.10%
Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves	Houston Astros	64.88%
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	57.39%
Texas Rangers vs New York Mets	New York Mets	53.49%
Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	57.54%
Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins*	Detroit Tigers	63.55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins	Arizona Diamondbacks	65.07%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	56.59%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	58.50%
Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics	Athletics	62.41%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants	Los Angeles Dodgers	61.51%
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	63.86%
Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	63.37%
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.32%

*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams