My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 7.5%
- Washington Nationals ML -110, 22.5%
- Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML -130, 15%
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 22.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 7.5%
- Houston Astros ML -130, 15%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +140, 7.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +300, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% | 0.1623 | +100 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 44.39% | 0.0654 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% | 0.4398 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% | 0.2071 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% | 0.2560 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 47.46% | 0.0347 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% | 0.5882 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% | -0.0283 | -165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% | 0.2203 | +120 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% | 0.2326 | -130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% | 0.2349 | +140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 34.39% | 0.3756 | +300 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 48.24% | -0.0112 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 45.03% | 0.2609 | +180 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% | -0.0272 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.12% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.61% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 75.38% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 51.37% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 70.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 52.54% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 70.59% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 60.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 55.47% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 69.64% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 65.61% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.76% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.97% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Cincinnati Reds | 53.16% |
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