My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +115, 15%
- Texas Rangers ML -110, 5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +145, 10%
- Houston Astros ML +100, 20%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +165, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 42.81% | 0.0728 | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% | -0.0229 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% | 0.3414 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% | 0.1010 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% | 0.1016 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% | 0.2805 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 34.45% | -0.0181 | +185 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% | 0.0646 | +100 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 72.32% | 0.4272 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% | 0.0459 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 48.22% | 0.2779 | +165 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres* | Colorado Rockies | 30.70% | 0.1207 | +265 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% | 0.0224 | -120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 39.59% | -0.0499 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% | 0.0131 | -165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.16% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 62.39% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 51.21% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 57.68% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 52.26% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins | Detroit Tigers | 65.55% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.23% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 71.36% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.02% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.78% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 69.30% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics* | Athletics | 55.87% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 60.41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.92% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
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