My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 7.5%
- New York Mets ML +110, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% | 0.1529 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% | 0.0337 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 44.17% | 0.0381 | +135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% | -0.0090 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 48.34% | 0.1360 | +135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Kansas City Royals | 46.37% | -0.0030 | +115 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% | 0.1892 | +110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 35.35% | 0.0606 | +200 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 44.33% | 0.0418 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.40% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.83% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 50.05% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.66% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.63% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.63% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 64.65% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.67% |
Bayesball Picks 
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