My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 15%
- Washington Nationals ML +125, 5%
- New York Mets ML +145, 7.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +130, 5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +185, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 49.16% | 0.0324 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% | 0.0178 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% | -0.0227 | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% | 0.0989 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% | 0.0394 | -155 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% | 0.2645 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% | 0.1502 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% | 0.2264 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 43.44% | 0.0425 | +140 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% | -0.0263 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 47.24% | 0.1573 | +145 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Chicago White Sox | 44.00% | -0.0320 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% | 0.1318 | +130 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | St. Louis Cardinals | 45.18% | 0.2875 | +185 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 31.48% | 0.1806 | +275 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.84% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 57.50% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 62.09% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Baltimore Orioles | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.99% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 66.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins | Washington Nationals | 51.12% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 50.06% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.56% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.62% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 52.76% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox* | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.00% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres | Cincinnati Reds | 51.44% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.82% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.52% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
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