9/8/25 Baseball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	Kansas City Royals	65.86%	0.2843	-105
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	Washington Nationals	72.03%	0.5126	+110
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	70.48%	0.2686	-125
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	Chicago Cubs	68.93%	0.1787	-140
Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	52.72%	0.0807	+105
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	59.84%	0.2567	+110
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	51.85%	0.1407	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners	St. Louis Cardinals	34.42%	0.0325	+200
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	Arizona Diamondbacks	59.68%	0.4921	+150
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	Athletics	63.22%	0.5805	+150
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Colorado Rockies	29.87%	0.0752	+260

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians	Kansas City Royals	65.86%
Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins	Washington Nationals	72.03%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	70.48%
Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves	Chicago Cubs	68.93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	52.72%
Minnesota Twins vs Los Angeles Angels	Minnesota Twins	59.84%
Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres	Cincinnati Reds	51.85%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	65.58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants	Arizona Diamondbacks	59.68%
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	Athletics	63.22%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Los Angeles Dodgers	70.13%

*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams

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