Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Seattle Mariners ML +100, 12.5%
• Cleveland Guardians ML +125, 5%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +130, 15%
• Chicago White Sox ML +155, 10%
• Washington Nationals ML +165, 15%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +100, 7.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves	Seattle Mariners	63.50%	0.2699	+100
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	Cleveland Guardians	51.19%	0.1517	+125
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	44.21%	0.0610	+140
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays	44.39%	0.0210	+130
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.13%	0.4290	+130
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	58.86%	0.0594	-125
Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	Chicago White Sox	51.25%	0.3069	+155
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins*	Miami Marlins	57.82%	0.1854	+105
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	62.40%	0.0670	-140
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	64.51%	0.0645	-155
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs	Washington Nationals	55.62%	0.4739	+165
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Houston Astros	55.90%	-0.0106	-130
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	34.31%	0.0122	+195
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	57.78%	0.1557	+100
Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	52.58%	0.0253	-105

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves	Seattle Mariners	63.50%
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	Cleveland Guardians	51.19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees	New York Yankees	55.61%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.13%
New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	58.86%
Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers	Chicago White Sox	51.25%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins*	Miami Marlins	57.82%
Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	62.40%
San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	64.51%
Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs	Washington Nationals	55.62%
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Houston Astros	55.90%
San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies	San Diego Padres	65.69%
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	57.78%
Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	52.58%

*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams