My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +220, 5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +240, 10%
- New York Mets ML -130, 10%
- Seattle Mariners ML +110, 20%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | Ev | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.77% | 0.0055 | +115 |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 37.80% | 0.2096 | +220 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 44.81% | 0.0082 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 42.89% | 0.4584 | +240 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 65.92% | 0.1668 | -130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.25% | 0.0374 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 46.29% | 0.0415 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 46.97% | 0.0099 | +115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 47.06% | -0.0117 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.99% | 0.0174 | -115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 52.39% | 0.0007 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 70.63% | 0.4833 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 56.58% | 0.0581 | -115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres | 67.00% | 0.0050 | -200 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 52.52% | 0.0504 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 53.23% |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 62.20% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 55.19% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 57.11% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 65.92% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.75% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.71% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.03% |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | San Francisco Giants | 52.94% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.99% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 52.39% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Seattle Mariners | 70.63% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 56.58% |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies | San Diego Padres | 67.00% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 52.52% |
Bayesball Picks 
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