My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago White Sox ML +155, 7.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +120, 7.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +200, 10%
- Los Angeles Angels ML -150, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Washington Nationals | 41.24% | 0.1548 | +180 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.53% | 0.0047 | -105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 49.00% | 0.2496 | +155 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.95% | 0.1761 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 43.15% | 0.0356 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.33% | 0.0148 | -130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 46.32% | 0.3896 | +200 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.87% | -0.0446 | -140 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 45.88% | 0.0093 | +120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.22% | 0.0482 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers* | Texas Rangers | 51.62% | 0.1098 | +115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.05% | -0.0109 | -120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies* | Colorado Rockies | 35.34% | -0.0104 | +180 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.28% | 0.1235 | -150 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 61.30% | 0.0849 | -130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.76% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 51.53% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.00% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.95% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.85% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.68% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.87% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.12% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.22% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers* | Texas Rangers | 51.62% |
| San Francisco Giants vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.05% |
| San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies* | San Diego Padres | 64.66% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.28% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston Red Sox | 61.30% |
*Missing starting pitcher information for one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 
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