My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago White Sox ML +125, 10%
- Houston Astros ML +120, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 49.00% | 0.0291 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.11% | -0.0342 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Cleveland Guardians | 41.53% | -0.0448 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.98% | -0.0021 | -165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.77% | 0.2323 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.77% | 0.1830 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.89% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.47% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.98% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.77% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.77% |
Bayesball Picks 
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