My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +140, 15%
- Athletics ML -105, 12.5%
- Houston Astros ML +105, 17.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% | -0.0394 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% | -0.0316 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% | 0.0732 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 44.84% | 0.0763 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% | 0.2975 | +150 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% | -0.0017 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% | -0.0285 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 48.59% | 0.0689 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% | 0.0689 | -175 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% | 0.0765 | -170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% | 0.4663 | +140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% | 0.0478 | -125 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% | 0.2730 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% | 0.4082 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 35.23% | 0.0216 | +190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 57.52% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 52.92% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 62.76% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.16% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 58.88% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 51.41% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 68.09% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 67.71% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 61.10% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.21% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.28% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 64.77% |
Bayesball Picks 
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