My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- New York Mets ML -130, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +120, 10%
- Athletics ML -120, 10%
- Houston Astros ML +105, 5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers- | New York Mets | 65.59% | 0.1610 | -130 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.54% | 0.1104 | +155 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 49.19% | 0.0330 | +110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 31.08% | 0.0103 | +225 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals- | Washington Nationals | 54.93% | -0.0113 | -125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% | 0.0365 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Los Angeles Angels | 42.12% | -0.0103 | +135 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% | -0.0255 | -195 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% | 0.2341 | +120 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% | 0.1938 | -120 |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% | 0.1133 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies- | San Francisco Giants | 38.72% | 0.1230 | +190 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 41.71% | 0.0637 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% | 0.0973 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 65.59% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.81% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 68.92% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 54.93% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 51.82% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.88% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 64.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 56.10% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 65.23% |
| New York Yankees vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.31% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 61.28% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 58.29% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.68% |
Bayesball Picks 
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