My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cleveland Guardians ML +130, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +155, 10%
- Athletics ML +120, 20%
- Chicago Cubs ML -130, 7.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +130, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +135, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% | N/A | N/A |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 48.59% | -0.0282 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% | 0.0155 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% | 0.4092 | +130 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 49.94% | 0.1236 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% | 0.3778 | +155 |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% | 0.6221 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% | 0.1719 | -130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% | 0.2767 | +130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 41.99% | -0.0133 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% | 0.2836 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 49.70% | -0.0060 | +100 |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% | 0.0041 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals* | Miami Marlins | 54.29% |
| New York Mets vs Detroit Tigers | New York Mets | 51.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.42% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Boston Red Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 61.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.06% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 54.03% |
| Athletics vs St. Louis Cardinals | Athletics | 73.73% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 66.21% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres | Baltimore Orioles | 54.62% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 50.30% |
| Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.12% |
*One or both teams may be missing starting pitcher data
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