My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- San Diego Padres ML +110, 15%
- Chicago White Sox ML +165, 12.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +110, 15%
- Philadelphia Phillies ML -155, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% | -0.0058 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% | 0.3150 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 37.79% | -0.0364 | +155 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 43.74% | -0.0378 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% | 0.0071 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% | -0.0509 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 38.28% | -0.0431 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 42.51% | 0.0628 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 43.88% | 0.1188 | +115 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% | 0.3855 | +165 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% | -0.0403 | -270 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% | 0.2928 | +110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 46.61% | 0.0720 | +130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.40% | 0.1229 | +185 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% | 0.1520 | -155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.83% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 62.62% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.21% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.26% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.73% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 50.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.72% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.49% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 56.12% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 70.05% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 61.56% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Texas Rangers | 53.39% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.82% |
Bayesball Picks 
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