My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +190, 10%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -125, 7.5%
- Athletics ML +110, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Milwaukee Brewers | 47.99% | 0.0078 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 42.58% | -0.0206 | +130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.15% | 0.2038 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 45.40% | 0.1577 | +155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% | 0.0012 | -155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.73% | -0.0385 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 45.76% | 0.0525 | +130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% | -0.0270 | -190 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 47.67% | 0.3825 | +190 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% | 0.0133 | -120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% | -0.0396 | -150 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% | 0.0289 | -125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% | 0.0130 | -210 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizonia Diamondbacks | 39.76% | 0.1531 | +190 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% | 0.1586 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.01% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.42% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.85% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 54.60% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies* | Philadelphia Phillies | 60.68% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.24% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 63.59% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 52.33% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers | 55.37% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 57.51% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 57.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 68.91% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.24% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.17% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 
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