My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Miami Marlins ML +145, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +190, 5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +150, 7.5%
- San Diego Padres ML -135, 12.5%
- Athletics ML -130, 15%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +130, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% | 0.0283 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% | -0.0353 | -150 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% | 0.0222 | -200 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% | 0.0956 | -130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% | 0.0661 | +105 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% | 0.0063 | -165 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% | 0.3208 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.10% | 0.2498 | +190 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% | 0.2608 | +150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% | 0.0208 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% | 0.1745 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 33.03% | -0.0255 | +195 |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% | 0.2143 | -130 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 39.70% | 0.0718 | +170 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% | 0.2575 | +130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.10% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Washington Nationals | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.77% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 68.14% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.90% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.01% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 62.51% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 53.91% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 56.90% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 50.43% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 57.67% |
| San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | 67.50% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies | Chicago Cubs | 66.97% |
| Texas Rangers vs Athletics | Athletics | 68.60% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs San Francisco Giants | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% |
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