My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Colorado Rockies ML +220, 7.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +140, 15%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +165, 20%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 38.95% | 0.0127 | +160 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 42.25% | 0.3519 | +220 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% | 0.4048 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% | 0.2287 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% | 0.0333 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves | 45.72% | 0.1659 | +155 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 33.13% | 0.0767 | +225 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% | 0.6268 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 61.05% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.75% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.53% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 61.43% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 54.10% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.28% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 66.87% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.39% |
Bayesball Picks 
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