My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +220, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +105, 7.5%
- New York Mets ML -150, 15%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +145, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +170, 10%
- Athletics ML +100, 17.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 48.33% | 0.5467 | +220 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% | 0.1195 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% | 0.1600 | +105 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 46.93% | 0.0090 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% | -0.0393 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% | -0.0176 | -185 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% | 0.2073 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% | 0.0541 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% | 0.1089 | +120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% | 0.3037 | +145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 42.26% | -0.0068 | +135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 35.76% | 0.1801 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 48.68% | 0.3143 | +170 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% | 0.0594 | -125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% | 0.3393 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.67% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 69.11% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 56.59% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.07% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 55.21% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 63.79% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 72.30% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 58.56% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.21% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 57.74% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.24% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 58.85% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 66.97% |
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