My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML -125, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +105, 17.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +110, 5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +285, 5%
- Athletics ML +120, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +165, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% | 0.1007 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% | 0.1532 | -125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% | 0.3799 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 43.38% | 0.1279 | +160 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 44.49% | 0.1123 | +150 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% | 0.0813 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% | 0.1165 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 46.20% | 0.0857 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% | 0.0844 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% | 0.0844 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Colorado Rockies | 33.74% | 0.2992 | +285 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% | 0.0686 | -150 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% | 0.2680 | +120 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 47.32% | 0.2541 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.04% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.07% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 67.31% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.62% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.51% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 55.45% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.17% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.80% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.44% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 55.61% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 66.26% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | Chicago Cubs | 63.99% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.63% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 52.68% |
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