My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML +100, 15%
- Washington Nationals ML +210, 7.5%
- Minnesota Twins ML +120, 7.5%
- New York Mets ML +105, 5%
- Athletics ML +190, 7.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +125, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% | -0.0429 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% | 0.2497 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% | 0.3041 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | Washington Nationals | 41.80% | 0.2957 | +210 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% | 0.1439 | +120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% | 0.0791 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% | -0.0056 | -150 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 37.59% | -0.0225 | +160 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% | -0.0133 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 41.80% | 0.0449 | +150 |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% | 0.0306 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Athletics | 45.77% | 0.3274 | +190 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% | 0.2408 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 53.17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.54% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.20% |
| Washington Nationals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.20% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Minnesota Twins | 52.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.64% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 59.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.41% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.70% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 58.20% |
| San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners | San Diego Padres | 51.53% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 54.23% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Cincinnati Reds | 55.15% |
Bayesball Picks 
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