My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Colorado Rockies ML +300, 10%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -155, 10%
- New York Mets ML -145, 15%
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 5%
- Miami Marlins ML +115, 5%
- Athletics ML +145, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Colorado Rockies | 39.28% | 0.5713 | +300 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% | -0.0232 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% | 0.1347 | -155 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 32.21% | 0.1292 | +240 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% | 0.2177 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 49.36% | 0.1105 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% | 0.1246 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% | 0.0474 | +110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 47.21% | 0.0622 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 48.51% | -0.0056 | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% | -0.0462 | -160 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 47.43% | 0.1620 | +145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 45.73% | 0.1203 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.72% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.14% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 68.77% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 72.05% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.64% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 52.31% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.12% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.79% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.49% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 58.88% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.57% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.27% |
Bayesball Picks 
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