My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Boston Red Sox ML -115, 15%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -135, 20%
- Kansas City Royals ML +105, 5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML +105, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML -110, 5%
- New York Mets ML -125, 10%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 10%
- Chicago Cubs ML -145, 10%
- Athletics ML +145, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% | 0.2738 | -115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% | 0.3036 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 37.04% | 0.0742 | +190 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% | 0.1090 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% | 0.0711 | -185 |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% | -0.0248 | -125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% | 0.2462 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% | 0.1160 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 49.21% | 0.0827 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% | 0.1670 | -125 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% | 0.1807 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% | -0.0229 | -135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% | 0.1400 | -145 |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% | 0.3823 | +145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 68.12% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | 74.92% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 62.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 54.10% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% |
| Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 54.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.79% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 58.43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.79% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 64.83% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 59.04% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.15% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Angels | Chicago Cubs | 67.46% |
| Athletics vs Seattle Mariners | Athletics | 56.42% |
Bayesball Picks 
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