My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +140, 20%
- Athletics ML +130, 7.5%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -135, 5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -150, 5%
- San Diego Padres ML -255, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.18% | 0.0123 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros | 41.90% | 0.0266 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 42.55% | -0.0426 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.18% | 0.1515 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 68.74% | -0.0033 | -220 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 43.51% | 0.1096 | +155 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.97% | 0.2094 | +120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 65.95% | 0.5828 | +140 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 43.89% | -0.0126 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.34% | 0.0535 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Athletics | 52.23% | 0.2012 | +130 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.98% | 0.0611 | -135 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 31.94% | 0.0700 | +235 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 64.84% | 0.0828 | -150 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians | 51.11% | 0.0222 | +100 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 79.51% | 0.1052 | -255 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.18% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 58.10% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.45% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.18% |
| New York Mets vs Washington Nationals | New York Mets | 68.74% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.49% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.97% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 65.95% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | 56.11% |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.34% |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Athletics | 52.23% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.98% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 68.06% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 64.84% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Cleveland Guardians | 51.11% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 79.51% |
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