My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +105, 7.5%
- Chicago White Sox ML +185, 20%
- Kansas City Royals ML -135, 15%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 15%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 52.68% | -0.0517 | -125 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 62.59% | 0.0452 | -150 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.27% | 0.1129 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.81% | -0.0114 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 55.36% | 0.0574 | -110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% | 0.1208 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 59.49% | 0.6955 | +185 |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 69.36% | 0.2069 | -135 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.76% | 0.0077 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 30.08% | 0.0528 | +250 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 66.89% | 0.2241 | -120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.27% | -0.0225 | -114 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 48.64% | 0.0700 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 52.68% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 62.59% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.27% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.81% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Philadelphia Phillies | Seattle Mariners | 55.36% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 54.67% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Atlanta Braves | Chicago White Sox | 59.49% |
| Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 69.36% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.76% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.92% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Angels | Cincinnati Reds | 66.89% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.27% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 51.36% |
Bayesball Picks 
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