My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Philadelphia Phillies ML -185, 5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -270, 20%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 2.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +130, 15%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +160, 5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -140, 10%
- Athletics ML -110, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +135, 10%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.09% | 0.0640 | -185 |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 83.46% | 0.1434 | -270 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.59% | 0.0236 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Atlanta Braves | 48.24% | 0.0129 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.38% | 0.0409 | -105 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.39% | -0.0300 | -145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 54.66% | -0.0325 | -130 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago White Sox | 43.64% | 0.0691 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 60.21% | 0.3848 | +130 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.94% | 0.1686 | +160 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 67.51% | 0.1544 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.30% | 0.1899 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.58% | 0.2355 | +135 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 41.52% | -0.0451 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 58.75% | 0.0575 | -125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.09% |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 83.46% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.59% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.76% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.38% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 57.39% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 54.66% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.36% |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 60.21% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.06% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 67.51% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.30% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.58% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.48% |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 58.75% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment