My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Seattle Mariners ML -130, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 7.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 10%
- Chicago White Sox ML +140, 12.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML -120, 15%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -200, 10%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 10%
- Athletics ML -110, 20%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 72.76% | 0.0186 | -250 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.54% | 0.0713 | -165 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 61.70% | -0.0066 | -165 |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 65.18% | 0.1538 | -130 |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Miami Marlins | 38.81% | -0.0296 | +150 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.10% | 0.1903 | +120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | 56.66% | 0.2748 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 55.27% | -0.0051 | -125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago White Sox | 56.83% | 0.3639 | +140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 67.68% | 0.2386 | -120 |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 43.91% | -0.0121 | +125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 73.82% | 0.1074 | -200 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.70% | 0.1939 | +100 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.79% | 0.0565 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 73.30% | 0.4000 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 72.76% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 66.54% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 61.70% |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 65.18% |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 61.19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | 56.66% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 55.27% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago White Sox | 56.83% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 67.68% |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | New York Yankees | 56.09% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 73.82% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.70% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.79% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 73.30% |
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