My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 10%
- Texas Rangers ML -110, 5%
- Cleveland Guardians ML -120, 15%
- Detroit Tigers ML -135, 5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10%
- San Diego Padres ML +135, 10%
- San Francisco Giants ML -140, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.87% | 0.3404 | +180 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.60% | 0.2012 | +120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 37.30% | -0.0301 | +160 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 56.58% | 0.0807 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 50.76% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 68.80% | 0.2590 | -120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.73% | 0.0738 | -185 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | 32.27% | -0.0318 | +200 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 62.11% | 0.0808 | -135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 65.07% | -0.0045 | -190 |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.80% | 0.1782 | +115 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66.47% | -0.0162 | -210 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.22% | 0.0445 | +100 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 53.53% | 0.2580 | +135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 64.15% | 0.0970 | -140 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 52.13% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 54.60% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 62.70% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 56.58% |
| Seattle Mariners vs New York Mets | Seattle Mariners | 50.76% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 68.80% |
| Miami Marlins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.73% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 67.73% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 62.11% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 65.07% |
| New York Yankees vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.80% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66.47% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.22% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 53.53% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 64.15% |
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