My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 5%
- Washington Nationals ML +185, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 44.42% | -0.0450 | +115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | Chicago Cubs | 53.56% | -0.0199 | -120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | Miami Marlins | 52.16% | 0.0955 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 48.16% | 0.3726 | +185 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 71.55% | 0.0590 | -210 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 34.85% | -0.0243 | +180 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 38.55% | -0.0170 | +155 |
My Model’s Favored Winner Predictions + Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles | Seattle Mariners | 55.58% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays | Chicago Cubs | 53.56% |
| Miami Marlins vs Cleveland Guardians | Miami Marlins | 52.16% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.84% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 71.55% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins | Detroit Tigers | 65.15% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61.45% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment