Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

Recent posts

Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

8/11/25 Baseball Picks

My Picks

  • Cincinnati Reds ML -125, 7.5%
  • Minnesota Twins ML +160, 12.5%
  • Washington Nationals ML +125, 22.5%
  • Chicago White Sox ML +130, 7.5%
  • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +145, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.36%0.1045-125
Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins51.48%0.3385+160
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals67.74%0.5241+125
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.53%0.1621+130
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersPittsburgh Pirates36.46%0.0210+180
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsColorado Rockies34.54%-0.0156+185
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks46.75%0.1454+145
Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros43.05%0.0547+145
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels38.35%-0.0030+160
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.70%0.0213-130
Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics54.13%0.0122-115

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds61.36%
Minnesota Twins vs New York YankeesMinnesota Twins51.48%
Washington Nationals vs Kansas City RoyalsWashington Nationals67.74%
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.53%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers63.54%
Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals65.46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers53.25%
Boston Red Sox vs Houston AstrosBoston Red Sox56.95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Dodgers61.65%
San Diego Padres vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants57.70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs AthleticsAthletics54.13%
Posted in

Leave a comment