Bayesball Picks

My Picks

• Boston Red Sox ML +105
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +180
• Washington Nationals ML +160
• New York Mets ML -175
• Miami Marlins ML +105
• Oakland Athletics ML -105
• Chicago White Sox ML +120
• Seattle Mariners ML +125

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.81%	0.1235	+105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	44.94%	0.2583	+180
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.64%	0.4468	+160
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Kansas City Royals	44.50%	-0.0433	+115
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	69.66%	0.0937	-175
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	45.56%	0.0933	+140
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.12%	0.1505	+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Baltimore Orioles	41.04%	0.0669	+160
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	67.29%	0.0498	-180
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	74.38%	0.4503	-105
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	50.06%	0.1013	+120
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	St. Louis Cardinals	43.66%	0.1352	+160
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.64%	0.2519	+125
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Detroit Tigers	36.79%	-0.0435	+160

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Houston Astros vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	54.81%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Tampa Bay Rays	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.06%
Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds*	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.64%
Kansas City Royals vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	55.50%
San Francisco Giants vs New York Mets	New York Mets	69.66%
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	54.44%
New York Yankees vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.12%
Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	58.96%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies	Pittsburgh Pirates	67.29%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics	Oakland Athletics	74.38%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels	Chicago White Sox	50.06%
St. Louis Cardinals vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	56.34%
Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.64%
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	63.21%

*This game started yesterday. I had Reds originally at ~52%. The game has since started to a 1-0 Reds lead with baserunners on first and second base. Since this is a suspended game, play will resume from this point forward. My model changed to Braves 67% since then, but I will not pick a winner for a match that has already started. Plus, I still have the Reds ML bet active. As such, I will treat this game as one from yesterday, and not as one from today.