Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Test accuracy: 58.53%
2,284 games

7/10/25 Baseball Picks

My Picks

  • Seattle Mariners ML -120
  • Tampa Bay Rays ML +100
  • Chicago White Sox ML +105
  • Oakland Athletics ML +160
  • Texas Rangers ML +115
  • San Diego Padres ML -105

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

MatchupPredicted TeamProbabilityEVOdds
New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets58.26%-0.0271-150
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs56.90%-0.0270-140
New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets63.60%0.0748-145
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.40%0.0072-185
Seattle Mariners vs New York YankeesSeattle Mariners59.59%0.0904-120
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.48%0.0295+100
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.96%0.4344+105
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.07%0.0536-150
Atlanta Braves vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics50.10%0.3026+160
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.58%0.1306+115
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.72%0.1060-105

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability:

MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets58.26%
Chicago Cubs vs Minnesota TwinsChicago Cubs56.90%
New York Mets vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Mets63.60%
Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds65.40%
Seattle Mariners vs New York YankeesSeattle Mariners59.59%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red SoxTampa Bay Rays51.48%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox69.96%
Washington Nationals vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.07%
Atlanta Braves vs Oakland AthleticsOakland Athletics50.10%
Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles AngelsTexas Rangers52.58%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres56.72%
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