Bayesball Picks

My Picks

• Miami Marlins ML +100
• New York Yankees ML -135
• Los Angeles Angels ML +110
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100
• Seattle Mariners ML -160

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV)
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

Matchup	Higher EV Pick	Probability	EV	Odds
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.31%	0.1263	+100
Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	45.20%	0.1516	+155
Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals	Detroit Tigers	65.85%	0.0601	-165
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	New York Yankees	66.05%	0.1492	-135
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	New York Mets	63.55%	0.0295	-160
Los Angeles Angels vs Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Angels	56.15%	0.1791	+110
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs	Cleveland Guardians	42.04%	-0.0120	+135
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	53.03%	0.0605	+100
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	67.49%	0.0866	-160
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Chicago White Sox	37.19%	0.2643	+240

Today’s Favorite Predictions + Probability

Matchup	Predicted Team	Probability
Minnesota Twins vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	56.31%
Houston Astros vs Colorado Rockies	Houston Astros	54.80%
Detroit Tigers vs Washington Nationals	Detroit Tigers	65.85%
New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays	New York Yankees	66.05%
Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets	New York Mets	63.55%
Los Angeles Angels vs Atlanta Braves	Los Angeles Angels	56.15%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	57.96%
San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	53.03%
Kansas City Royals vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	67.49%
Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Los Angeles Dodgers	62.81%

Model Stats:
Used 1,141 total games with an 80/20 train-test split
Train accuracy: 67.98%
Test accuracy: 63.32%
Test recall: 85.34%
Test precision: 59.64%